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The Einstein Test

Answer to Q4. Absolutely change to Curtain #3. The grand prize has twice as much chance of   being behind Curtain #3 instead of being behind Curtain #1.  The key is that the MC did NOT randomly show you Curtain #2, he knew the prize wasn't there. Without construction a probability matrix, the simplest way to envision this problem to to imagine that there are one million curtains. If you pick one curtain your odds of getting the prize are 1 in 1,000,000. Now the MC (who again knows where the prize is) can eliminate 999,998 of the curtains so that there are only two left. Do you believe that the curtain you initially selected is just as likely to have the prize as the one he left remaining?

Question #5 You are in a room with two large jars.  One contains 100 white balls and the other contains 100 black balls. You will be blindfolded, spun around until you are dizzy, and finally made to reach into one of the jars (which will be mixed) and pull out one ball. If it is a white ball, you are allowed to live and if you pull out a black ball, you will immediately be executed! Before all of this starts, you will be given one opportunity to distribute ALL 200 balls in any manner you wish between the two jars. Is there a distribution you can make that increases your chance for survival ?

a) No, it's always 50/50.

b) Yes, there is a distribution that improves my chances.


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